BELL CONSULTING GROUP INC.

WCA WiMax panel at Von.x conference

Much has been made by stakeholders of WiMAX and its 4G broadband future, but billions of dollars will no doubt be spent here and abroad on its open systems technology, infrastructure products, network build-out, and new applications development. WCA CenterStage will convene a panel of service providers, vendors, investors -- pundits all -- to discuss and debate the future of WiMAX and the opportunities it presents.

Panelists:

 -- Seamus McAteer, Sr Analyst, MMetrics (moderator)

 -- Rohini Chakravarthy, Principal, New Enterprise Associates

 -- Ron Resnick, Chairman, WiMAX Forum

 -- Ben Vos, VP Core Technologies, Sprint Nextel

 -- Greg Welch, Dir Mkt Development, WiMAX Program Office, Intel
 -- Paul Seargant, Sr Manager WiMax Marketing, Cisco Systems
 -- Tom Gruba, Sr Director Mktg MOTOWi4 and WiMAX, Motorola


McAteer did a great job of challenging the panel with difficult questions, but I can't say the panelists really rose to the occasion. All was presented as "just fine" in WiMax land, with close to one million WiMax subscribers currently in service worldwide, and a panel consensus that 10 million WiMax users will come online in the United States by 2010. However, there was no differentiation or detail as to what constitutes a "WiMax subscriber", e.g. for one thing how much of the claimed base is really legacy fixed Microwave; and fixed vs. mobile WiMax; no discussion of the dismal results to date of the WiMax Forum's testing and certification program, service provider plans in the US, or any specifics anywhere else. There was a dearth of discussion of key issue: the status of large-scale service providers with plans, spectrum, (and funding?) for Mobile WiMax in the US. WiMax networks which were mentioned as big success stories - like WiBro in S. Korea, are known in fact to have major issues, benefit from government funding, be beta test deployments, or to be very embryonic stage test projects.

I am a mobile computing and networking enthusiast and 3G user (hoping for 4G!) and would like to see WiMax happen on a large scale, more than just about anyone. But when a new technology is having birthing pains, they should be discussed, versus just denied and "spun around" (was the way this panel was named - "Whither Wimax" - maybe a hint that it's time?). This panel seemed to feel that Intel can essentially "force" the existence of WiMax by putting it into laptops at very low cost, like the Wi-Fi vendors have done. But the big issues were mostly dodged; the moderator was unable to get any real discussion going, despite numerous attempts. To hear the Chairman of the WiMax Forum rather vehemently tell it, WiMax is about to knock your doors down and has no issues except handling it's meteoric growth.

This was billed as a "different" sort of panel discussion on WiMax. But it wasn't due to a lack of effort by McAtter, who continually challenged the panel. For example, he responded to their claims about the current WiMax subscriber base large, by characterizing it more accurately (even if it really is a million users already) as "peanuts". Vos said he could provide no new information or announcements as to Sprint WiMax' plans on the broken down (at the time; still not a "done deal") Sprint-Clearwire-Xohm deal. Sprint is currently navigating a near Bear Stearns-level corporate financial and subscriber base crisis, which threatens it's existence and leaves it's WiMax plans in disarray, without a new capital infusion.

McAteer also challenged their consensus view that there will be 10M WiMax subscribers in the US by 2010, pointing out that would mean that the WiMax market will need to grow faster than the iPhone market has (highly unlikely!). He also asked Intel if they had "learned anything from their Wi-Fi experience" (Intel fought Wi-Fi tooth and nail for years, while promoting HomeRF). Welsh's response was only that it "showed us the latent demand" (for broadband wireless services).

The 500+ deployments of Metro-scale Wi-Fi were hardly mentioned, and were brushed off as "irrelevant" in the face of WiMax running on licensed spectrum (from which service provider?). Same for LTE, for different reasons (an even bigger threat). Except for the moderator, you would have gained no inkling that WiMax is in big trouble as an emerging technology. And so, it went.

Thanks to the WCA for organizing this session!